China’s Future – Ashley Talks 26

In this video I’m talking about 4 potential pathways for China as described in David Shambaugh’s book “China’s Future”. Do you think China will stay on the current Hard Authoritarianism route or do you see it reversing back to Soft Authoritarianism and even Semi-Democracy?

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The Four possible paths for China based on the book “China’s Future”

1. Neo-Totalitarianism

2. Hard Authoritarianism

3. Soft Authoritarianism

4. Semi-Democracy

Below are the thoughts of the book’s author. What do you think?

1)  Neo-Totalitarianism
All Resources are controlled by the government or the ruler. This was the system in Mao’s era.
If China goes back to neo-totalitarianism, the economy may collapse as the private sector of the economy is already too dependent on the global economy and the citizenry would resist.

2) Soft Authoritarianism (from 1998-2008)
Loosening control of the media and society. Increasing influence of the market on society.
If China returns to this path it may have moderate reform in political and economic aspects leading to moderate growth.

3) Hard Authoritarianism (From 2008-present)
Increasing government control over the media, NGOs, businesses and individuals. The author suggests that China will continue to decline if it continues on this path.

4) Semi-Democracy
This mode is similar to the Singaporean model. The author expects that reforms will occur, such as allowing a parliament and judiciary independent of the executive, relatively open media and a full market-driven economy. The likely result of this regime type is successful reform and full transition. However, China is still a long way from this model and it is very doubtful that CCP would tolerate features that would interrupt its control.

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